developer activity remains the swing factor for builder priorities

Markets rarely move for a single reason.

Keeping a written thesis helps avoid narrative whiplash.

Put beside current chatter on “CFTC warns Kalshi of imminent charges over notification of contracts: Politico,” the incentive problem looks clearer.

Meanwhile, user retention can either confirm the move or expose it as temporary.

For operators, process beats prediction when the tape is noisy.

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