basis trades is underpricing liquidity conditions

A clean chart can hide a crowded trade.

Keeping a written thesis helps avoid narrative whiplash.

Put beside current chatter on “Mercado Bitcoin to resume cash withdrawals after $49M hack,” the incentive problem looks clearer.

Liquidity still decides how far any catalyst can travel.

The practical takeaway is to prefer durable signals over dramatic ones.

Attention jumps quickly; capital moves more slowly.

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